Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world

Vivien Foster (), Philipp A. Trotter (), Sven Werner, Melin Niedermayer, Yacob Mulugetta, Ploy Achakulwisut, Aoife Brophy, Navroz K. Dubash, Sam Fankhauser (), Adam Hawkes, Stephanie Hirmer, Stuart Jenkins, Sam Loni, Alexis McGivern, Khamphone Nanthavong, Benedict Probst, Steve Pye, Vladimir Russo, Gregor Semieniuk, Carlos Shenga, Vignesh Sridharan, Sugandha Srivastav, Youba Sokona, Lucas Somavilla Croxatto and Pu Yang
Additional contact information
Vivien Foster: Imperial College London
Philipp A. Trotter: University of Wuppertal
Sven Werner: University of Wuppertal
Melin Niedermayer: University of Wuppertal
Yacob Mulugetta: University College London
Ploy Achakulwisut: Stockholm Environment Institute
Aoife Brophy: University of Oxford
Navroz K. Dubash: Centre for Policy Research
Adam Hawkes: Imperial College London
Stephanie Hirmer: University of Oxford
Stuart Jenkins: University of Oxford
Sam Loni: University of Oxford
Alexis McGivern: University of Oxford
Khamphone Nanthavong: National University of Laos
Benedict Probst: Group for Sustainability and Technology, ETH Zurich
Steve Pye: University College London
Vladimir Russo: Fundação Kissama
Carlos Shenga: Centre for Research on Governance and Development (CPGD)
Vignesh Sridharan: Imperial College London
Sugandha Srivastav: University of Oxford
Youba Sokona: Groupe de Reflection et d’Initiatives Novatrices
Lucas Somavilla Croxatto: University College London
Pu Yang: University of Oxford

Nature Energy, 2024, vol. 9, issue 3, 242-250

Abstract: Abstract The production and use of fossil fuels need to decline rapidly to limit global warming. Although global net-zero scenarios abound, the associated development ramifications for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries (LLMICs), as well as adequate international responses, have been underexplored. Here we conceptualize that, depending on country context, three types of development transition follow from declining fossil fuel production and use for LLMIC producers, namely an energy transition, an economic transition and an equitable fossil fuel production transition. We propose a classification of these transitions, arguing that heterogeneity in LLMICs’ fossil fuel production and usage substantially impacts their pathways towards low-carbon development. We illustrate this by discussing different cases of fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, focusing on Mozambique, India, Lao PDR and Angola. We conclude by detailing context-specific international support portfolios to foster low-carbon development in fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, and call for a re-orientation of international support along principles of global solidarity.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-023-01440-3

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