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Pulling guesses up by their bootstraps

Edward Vul ()
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Edward Vul: University of California, San Diego

Nature Human Behaviour, 2018, vol. 2, issue 1, 15-16

Abstract: Multiple guesses from one individual, like guesses from a crowd, yield a better estimate when averaged. How far can such solipsistic polling take us in real, high-stakes settings? Now 1.2 million incentivized, real-world guesses show just how much people can improve their judgements by reconsidering their own estimates.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41562-017-0280-5

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