State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States

Weihsueh A. Chiu (), Rebecca Fischer and Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah ()
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Weihsueh A. Chiu: Texas A&M University
Rebecca Fischer: Texas A&M University
Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah: Texas A&M University

Nature Human Behaviour, 2020, vol. 4, issue 10, 1080-1090

Abstract: Abstract Starting in mid-May 2020, many US states began relaxing social-distancing measures that were put in place to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. To evaluate the impact of relaxation of restrictions on COVID-19 dynamics and control, we developed a transmission dynamic model and calibrated it to US state-level COVID-19 cases and deaths. We used this model to evaluate the impact of social distancing, testing and contact tracing on the COVID-19 epidemic in each state. As of 22 July 2020, we found that only three states were on track to curtail their epidemic curve. Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia may have to double their testing and/or tracing rates and/or rolling back reopening by 25%, while eight states require an even greater measure of combined testing, tracing and distancing. Increased testing and contact-tracing capacity is paramount for mitigating the recent large-scale increases in US cases and deaths.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-00969-7

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