High-status lobbyists are most likely to overrate their success

Benjamin A. Lyons (), Amy Melissa McKay and Jason Reifler
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Benjamin A. Lyons: University of Utah
Amy Melissa McKay: University of Exeter
Jason Reifler: University of Exeter

Nature Human Behaviour, 2020, vol. 4, issue 2, 153-159

Abstract: Abstract Overconfidence helps individuals reach higher status within social groups by making them seem more competent regardless of objective ability, so this bias may be especially prevalent among status-oriented members of elite communities. Based on this premise, we explore whether lobbyists in the USA misperceive their success. Using models that (1) control for legislative outcome when predicting self-assessed policy success and (2) compare self-assessed policy success on specific proposals against the average success reported by all lobbyists working on the same side of an issue, we identify systematic tendencies to overrate achievements. Lobbyists with higher incomes, who reside in Washington, DC, USA, have congressional experience and who engage in a broader range of activities are more likely to overrate their success. Public interest group lobbyists tend to underestimate success. We conclude that political elites are subject to the same biases as others when evaluating their performance, and these biases may be largely status-driven.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41562-019-0761-9

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