Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures

Dabo Guan (), Daoping Wang, Stephane Hallegatte, Steven J. Davis, Jingwen Huo, Shuping Li, Yangchun Bai, Tianyang Lei, Qianyu Xue, D'Maris Coffman (), Danyang Cheng, Peipei Chen, Xi Liang, Bing Xu, Xiaosheng Lu, Shouyang Wang, Klaus Hubacek and Peng Gong
Additional contact information
Dabo Guan: Tsinghua University
Daoping Wang: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Steven J. Davis: University of California, Irvine
Jingwen Huo: Tsinghua University
Shuping Li: Shandong University
Yangchun Bai: Shandong University
Tianyang Lei: Tsinghua University
Qianyu Xue: Shandong University
Danyang Cheng: Tsinghua University
Peipei Chen: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xi Liang: University of Edinburgh
Bing Xu: Tsinghua University
Xiaosheng Lu: Spark Ventures
Shouyang Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Klaus Hubacek: University of Groningen
Peng Gong: Tsinghua University

Nature Human Behaviour, 2020, vol. 4, issue 6, 577-587

Abstract: Abstract Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries.

Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (87)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0896-8 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:nathum:v:4:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1038_s41562-020-0896-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/nathumbehav/

DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Human Behaviour is currently edited by Stavroula Kousta

More articles in Nature Human Behaviour from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().