Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities

Bo Huang (), Jionghua Wang, Jixuan Cai, Shiqi Yao, Paul Kay Sheung Chan (), Tony Hong-wing Tam, Ying-Yi Hong, Corrine W. Ruktanonchai, Alessandra Carioli, Jessica R. Floyd, Nick W. Ruktanonchai, Weizhong Yang, Zhongjie Li, Andrew J. Tatem () and Shengjie Lai
Additional contact information
Bo Huang: The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Jionghua Wang: The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Jixuan Cai: Tencent Inc.
Shiqi Yao: The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Paul Kay Sheung Chan: The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Tony Hong-wing Tam: The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Ying-Yi Hong: The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Corrine W. Ruktanonchai: University of Southampton
Alessandra Carioli: University of Southampton
Jessica R. Floyd: University of Southampton
Nick W. Ruktanonchai: University of Southampton
Weizhong Yang: Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College
Zhongjie Li: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Andrew J. Tatem: University of Southampton
Shengjie Lai: University of Southampton

Nature Human Behaviour, 2021, vol. 5, issue 6, 695-705

Abstract: Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed substantial challenges to the formulation of preventive interventions, particularly since the effects of physical distancing measures and upcoming vaccines on reducing susceptible social contacts and eventually halting transmission remain unclear. Here, using anonymized mobile geolocation data in China, we devise a mobility-associated social contact index to quantify the impact of both physical distancing and vaccination measures in a unified way. Building on this index, our epidemiological model reveals that vaccination combined with physical distancing can contain resurgences without relying on stay-at-home restrictions, whereas a gradual vaccination process alone cannot achieve this. Further, for cities with medium population density, vaccination can reduce the duration of physical distancing by 36% to 78%, whereas for cities with high population density, infection numbers can be well-controlled through moderate physical distancing. These findings improve our understanding of the joint effects of vaccination and physical distancing with respect to a city’s population density and social contact patterns.

Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01063-2 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:nathum:v:5:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1038_s41562-021-01063-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/nathumbehav/

DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01063-2

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Human Behaviour is currently edited by Stavroula Kousta

More articles in Nature Human Behaviour from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().