A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

Amy E. Nivette (), Renee Zahnow, Raul Aguilar, Andri Ahven, Shai Amram, Barak Ariel, María José Arosemena Burbano, Roberta Astolfi, Dirk Baier, Hyung-Min Bark, Joris E. H. Beijers, Marcelo Bergman, Gregory Breetzke, I. Alberto Concha-Eastman, Sophie Curtis-Ham, Ryan Davenport, Carlos Díaz, Diego Fleitas, Manne Gerell, Kwang-Ho Jang, Juha Kääriäinen, Tapio Lappi-Seppälä, Woon-Sik Lim, Rosa Loureiro Revilla, Lorraine Mazerolle, Gorazd Meško, Noemí Pereda, Maria F. T. Peres, Rubén Poblete-Cazenave, Simon Rose, Robert Svensson, Nico Trajtenberg, Tanja Lippe, Joran Veldkamp, Carlos J. Vilalta Perdomo and Manuel P. Eisner
Additional contact information
Amy E. Nivette: Utrecht University
Renee Zahnow: University of Queensland
Raul Aguilar: Mossos d’Esquadra, Catalan Police
Andri Ahven: Ministry of Justice
Shai Amram: Hebrew University
Barak Ariel: Hebrew University
María José Arosemena Burbano: University of Cambridge
Roberta Astolfi: Universidade de São Paulo
Dirk Baier: Institute of Delinquency and Crime Prevention, Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften (ZHAW) School of Social Work
Hyung-Min Bark: Korean Institute of Criminology
Joris E. H. Beijers: Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR)
Marcelo Bergman: Centro de Estudios Latinoamericano sobre Inseguridad y Violencia (CELIV), Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero
Gregory Breetzke: Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria
I. Alberto Concha-Eastman: Secretariat of Health
Sophie Curtis-Ham: Evidence Based Policing Centre, New Zealand Police
Ryan Davenport: University College London
Diego Fleitas: Centro de Estudios Latinoamericano sobre Inseguridad y Violencia (CELIV), Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero
Manne Gerell: Malmö University
Kwang-Ho Jang: Smart Policing Intelligence Center, Police Science Institute
Juha Kääriäinen: University of Helsinki
Tapio Lappi-Seppälä: University of Helsinki
Woon-Sik Lim: Smart Policing Intelligence Center, Police Science Institute
Rosa Loureiro Revilla: University of Cambridge
Lorraine Mazerolle: University of Queensland
Gorazd Meško: University of Maribor
Noemí Pereda: Universitat de Barcelona
Maria F. T. Peres: Universidade de São Paulo
Rubén Poblete-Cazenave: Erasmus University Rotterdam
Simon Rose: University of Cambridge
Robert Svensson: Malmö University
Nico Trajtenberg: Cardiff University
Tanja Lippe: Utrecht University
Joran Veldkamp: Utrecht University
Carlos J. Vilalta Perdomo: Center for Research in Geospatial Information Sciences (CentroGeo)
Manuel P. Eisner: University of Cambridge

Nature Human Behaviour, 2021, vol. 5, issue 7, 868-877

Abstract: Abstract The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (28)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

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