Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021

Juan Yang, Valentina Marziano, Xiaowei Deng, Giorgio Guzzetta, Juanjuan Zhang, Filippo Trentini, Jun Cai, Piero Poletti, Wen Zheng, Wei Wang, Qianhui Wu, Zeyao Zhao, Kaige Dong, Guangjie Zhong, Cécile Viboud, Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli () and Hongjie Yu ()
Additional contact information
Juan Yang: Fudan University
Valentina Marziano: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Xiaowei Deng: Fudan University
Giorgio Guzzetta: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Juanjuan Zhang: Fudan University
Filippo Trentini: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Jun Cai: Fudan University
Piero Poletti: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Wen Zheng: Fudan University
Wei Wang: Fudan University
Qianhui Wu: Fudan University
Zeyao Zhao: Fudan University
Kaige Dong: Fudan University
Guangjie Zhong: Fudan University
Cécile Viboud: National Institutes of Health
Stefano Merler: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Marco Ajelli: Indiana University School of Public Health
Hongjie Yu: Fudan University

Nature Human Behaviour, 2021, vol. 5, issue 8, 1009-1020

Abstract: Abstract COVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains a key question for policy makers. To address this, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable of keeping the reproduction number (Rt) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce the COVID-19 burden by up to 99% and bring Rt below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01155-z

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