Bayes versus bias in human reasoning

Mike Oaksford ()
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Mike Oaksford: Birkbeck, University of London

Nature Human Behaviour, 2024, vol. 8, issue 4, 628-629

Abstract: The past 35 years have seen Bayesian models applied to many areas of the cognitive and brain sciences, which suggests that reasoning and decision-making may be rational. Wishful thinking provides a serious challenge, as it questions a core assumption of Bayesian belief updating. Melnikoff and Strohminger develop a Bayesian model that uses affective prediction errors and meets this challenge.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41562-024-01823-w

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