Progress towards sustainable intensification in China challenged by land-use change

Lijun Zuo (), Zengxiang Zhang, Kimberly M. Carlson, Graham K. MacDonald, Kate A. Brauman, Yingchun Liu, Wen Zhang, Huayong Zhang, Wenbin Wu, Xiaoli Zhao, Xiao Wang, Bin Liu, Ling Yi, Qingke Wen, Fang Liu, Jinyong Xu, Shunguang Hu, Feifei Sun, James S. Gerber and Paul C. West
Additional contact information
Lijun Zuo: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zengxiang Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Kimberly M. Carlson: University of Hawai’i
Graham K. MacDonald: McGill University
Kate A. Brauman: University of Minnesota
Yingchun Liu: State Forestry Administration
Wen Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Huayong Zhang: North China Electric Power University
Wenbin Wu: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Xiaoli Zhao: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xiao Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Bin Liu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ling Yi: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Qingke Wen: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Fang Liu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jinyong Xu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Shunguang Hu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Feifei Sun: Chinese Academy of Sciences
James S. Gerber: University of Minnesota
Paul C. West: University of Minnesota

Nature Sustainability, 2018, vol. 1, issue 6, 304-313

Abstract: Abstract China is experiencing rapid land-use change and shifts in farm management. However, the interactive effects of these drivers on cropping system sustainability are unclear. Here, we evaluate spatio-temporal trade-offs among crop production and five key environmental indicators, including land use, water consumption, excess nitrogen and phosphorous use, and greenhouse gas emissions in China. From 1987 to 2010, as crop kilocalorie production increased (+66%), so did the total environmental impact of all indicators (+1.3–161%) except greenhouse gas emissions (−18%). Concurrently, environmental intensity—impact per kilocalorie produced—decreased for all indicators (−51–−13%) except excess phosphorus (+57%). Despite substantial loss and displacement of cropland to urban expansion, counterfactual scenario analysis indicates that farm management explained >90% of changes in crop production and environmental impact. However, cropland is expanding in regions of relatively high land and irrigation intensity. Although efficiency gains partly compensated for increased environmental pressures, continued geographic shifts in cropland could challenge progress towards agricultural sustainability in China.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0076-2

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