How conservation initiatives go to scale

Morena Mills (), Michael Bode, Michael B. Mascia, Rebecca Weeks, Stefan Gelcich, Nigel Dudley, Hugh Govan, Carla L. Archibald, Cristina Romero- de-Diego, Matthew Holden, Duan Biggs, Louise Glew, Robin Naidoo and Hugh P. Possingham
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Morena Mills: Imperial College London
Michael Bode: Queensland University of Technology
Michael B. Mascia: Conservation International
Rebecca Weeks: James Cook University
Stefan Gelcich: Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
Nigel Dudley: Equilibrium Research
Carla L. Archibald: The University of Queensland
Cristina Romero- de-Diego: The University of Queensland
Matthew Holden: The University of Queensland
Duan Biggs: The University of Queensland
Louise Glew: World Wildlife Fund
Robin Naidoo: World Wildlife Fund
Hugh P. Possingham: The University of Queensland

Nature Sustainability, 2019, vol. 2, issue 10, 935-940

Abstract: Abstract Although a major portion of the planet’s land and sea is managed to conserve biodiversity, little is known about the extent, speed and patterns of adoption of conservation initiatives. We undertook a quantitative exploration of how area-based conservation initiatives go to scale by analysing the adoption of 22 widely recognized and diverse initiatives from across the globe. We use a standardized approach to compare the potential of different initiatives to reach scale. While our study is not exhaustive, our analyses reveal consistent patterns across a variety of initiatives: adoption of most initiatives (82% of our case studies) started slowly before rapidly going to scale. Consistent with diffusion of innovation theory, most initiatives exhibit slow–fast–slow (that is, sigmoidal) dynamics driven by interactions between existing and potential adopters. However, uptake rates and saturation points vary among the initiatives and across localities. Our models suggest that the uptake of most of our case studies is limited; over half of the initiatives will be taken up by

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0384-1

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