Food production shocks across land and sea

Richard S. Cottrell (), Kirsty L. Nash, Benjamin S. Halpern, Tomas A. Remenyi, Stuart P. Corney, Aysha Fleming, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Sara Hornborg, Alexandra Johne, Reg A. Watson and Julia L. Blanchard
Additional contact information
Richard S. Cottrell: University of Tasmania
Kirsty L. Nash: University of Tasmania
Benjamin S. Halpern: University of California
Tomas A. Remenyi: University of Tasmania
Stuart P. Corney: University of Tasmania
Aysha Fleming: University of Tasmania
Elizabeth A. Fulton: University of Tasmania
Sara Hornborg: University of Tasmania
Alexandra Johne: University of Tasmania
Reg A. Watson: University of Tasmania
Julia L. Blanchard: University of Tasmania

Nature Sustainability, 2019, vol. 2, issue 2, 130-137

Abstract: Abstract Sudden losses to food production (that is, shocks) and their consequences across land and sea pose cumulative threats to global sustainability. We conducted an integrated assessment of global production data from crop, livestock, aquaculture and fisheries sectors over 53 years to understand how shocks occurring in one food sector can create diverse and linked challenges among others. We show that some regions are shock hotspots, exposed frequently to shocks across multiple sectors. Critically, shock frequency has increased through time on land and sea at a global scale. Geopolitical and extreme-weather events were the main shock drivers identified, but with considerable differences across sectors. We illustrate how social and ecological drivers, influenced by the dynamics of the food system, can spill over multiple food sectors and create synchronous challenges or trade-offs among terrestrial and aquatic systems. In a more shock-prone and interconnected world, bold food policy and social protection mechanisms that help people anticipate, cope with and recover from losses will be central to sustainability.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0210-1

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