A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation

Shinichiro Fujimori (), Tomoko Hasegawa, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Valentina Bosetti, Jessica Callen, Jacques Després, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Peter Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Jason F. L. Koopman, Hans Meijl, Yuki Ochi, Alexander Popp, Andreas Schmitz, Kiyoshi Takahashi and Detlef Vuuren
Additional contact information
Shinichiro Fujimori: Kyoto University
Tomoko Hasegawa: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Christoph Bertram: Member of the Leibniz Association
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky: Member of the Leibniz Association
Jessica Callen: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Jonathan Doelman: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Stefan Frank: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Oliver Fricko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Florian Humpenöder: Member of the Leibniz Association
Jason F. L. Koopman: Wageningen University and Research Centre
Hans Meijl: Wageningen University and Research Centre
Yuki Ochi: E-Konzal
Alexander Popp: Member of the Leibniz Association
Andreas Schmitz: European Commission
Kiyoshi Takahashi: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Detlef Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Nature Sustainability, 2019, vol. 2, issue 5, 386-396

Abstract: Abstract Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2

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