Emerging human infectious diseases and the links to global food production

Jason R. Rohr (), Christopher Barrett, David J. Civitello, Meggan E. Craft, Bryan Delius, Giulio A. DeLeo, Peter J. Hudson, Nicolas Jouanard, Karena H. Nguyen, Richard S. Ostfeld, Justin V. Remais, Gilles Riveau, Susanne H. Sokolow and David Tilman
Additional contact information
Jason R. Rohr: University of Notre Dame
David J. Civitello: Emory University
Meggan E. Craft: University of Minnesota
Bryan Delius: University of South Florida
Giulio A. DeLeo: Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University
Peter J. Hudson: Pennsylvania State University
Nicolas Jouanard: Laboratoire de Recherches Biomédicales, Espoir pour la Santé
Karena H. Nguyen: University of South Florida
Richard S. Ostfeld: Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies
Justin V. Remais: University of California, Berkeley
Gilles Riveau: Laboratoire de Recherches Biomédicales, Espoir pour la Santé
Susanne H. Sokolow: Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University
David Tilman: University of Minnesota

Nature Sustainability, 2019, vol. 2, issue 6, 445-456

Abstract: Abstract Infectious diseases are emerging globally at an unprecedented rate while global food demand is projected to increase sharply by 2100. Here, we synthesize the pathways by which projected agricultural expansion and intensification will influence human infectious diseases and how human infectious diseases might likewise affect food production and distribution. Feeding 11 billion people will require substantial increases in crop and animal production that will expand agricultural use of antibiotics, water, pesticides and fertilizer, and contact rates between humans and both wild and domestic animals, all with consequences for the emergence and spread of infectious agents. Indeed, our synthesis of the literature suggests that, since 1940, agricultural drivers were associated with >25% of all — and >50% of zoonotic — infectious diseases that emerged in humans, proportions that will likely increase as agriculture expands and intensifies. We identify agricultural and disease management and policy actions, and additional research, needed to address the public health challenge posed by feeding 11 billion people.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0293-3

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