Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments

Xuhui Wang (), Chuang Zhao, Christoph Müller, Chenzhi Wang, Philippe Ciais, Ivan Janssens, Josep Peñuelas, Senthold Asseng, Tao Li, Joshua Elliott, Yao Huang, Laurent Li and Shilong Piao
Additional contact information
Xuhui Wang: Peking University
Chuang Zhao: Peking University
Christoph Müller: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Chenzhi Wang: Peking University
Philippe Ciais: Peking University
Ivan Janssens: University of Antwerp
Josep Peñuelas: CREAF
Senthold Asseng: University of Florida
Tao Li: Applied GeoSolutions
Joshua Elliott: University of Chicago
Yao Huang: Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Laurent Li: IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Ecole Polytechnique
Shilong Piao: Peking University

Nature Sustainability, 2020, vol. 3, issue 11, 908-916

Abstract: Abstract Responses of global crop yields to warmer temperatures are fundamental to sustainable development under climate change but remain uncertain. Here, we combined a global dataset of field warming experiments (48 sites) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean with gridded global crop models to produce field-data-constrained estimates on responses of crop yield to changes in temperature (ST) with the emergent-constraint approach. Our constrained estimates show with >95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (−7.1 ± 2.8% K−1), rice (−5.6 ± 2.0% K−1) and soybean (−10.6 ± 5.8% K−1). For wheat, ST was 89% likely to be negative (−2.9 ± 2.3% K−1). Uncertainties associated with modelled ST were reduced by 12–54% for the four crops but data constraints do not allow for further disentangling ST of different crop types. A key implication for impact assessments after the Paris Agreement is that direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3–13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO2 fertilization effects and adaptations. Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction. This yield loss could be partially offset by projected benefits from elevated CO2, whose magnitude remains uncertain, and highlights the challenge to compensate it by autonomous adaptation.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7

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