Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions

Tomoko Hasegawa (), Shinichiro Fujimori, Stefan Frank, Florian Humpenöder, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Mykola Gusti, Mathijs Harmsen, Kimon Keramidas, Yuki Ochi, Ken Oshiro, Pedro Rochedo, Bas van Ruijven, Anique-Marie Cabardos, Andre Deppermann, Florian Fosse, Peter Havlik, Volker Krey, Alexander Popp, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef Vuuren and Keywan Riahi
Additional contact information
Tomoko Hasegawa: Ritsumeikan University
Shinichiro Fujimori: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Stefan Frank: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Florian Humpenöder: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Christoph Bertram: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Laurent Drouet: RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
Johannes Emmerling: RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
Mykola Gusti: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Mathijs Harmsen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Yuki Ochi: E-Konzal Co. Ltd.
Ken Oshiro: Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University
Pedro Rochedo: Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (CENERGIA-COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)
Anique-Marie Cabardos: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Andre Deppermann: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Florian Fosse: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Alexander Popp: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Roberto Schaeffer: Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (CENERGIA-COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)
Detlef Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Nature Sustainability, 2021, vol. 4, issue 12, 1052-1059

Abstract: Abstract Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use sector and the required land area for energy crops increase, resulting in additional risk of food insecurity.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w

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