China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment

Hao Zhao, Jinfeng Chang, Peter Havlik, Michiel Dijk, Hugo Valin, Charlotte Janssens, Lin Ma (), Zhaohai Bai, Mario Herrero, Pete Smith and Michael Obersteiner
Additional contact information
Hao Zhao: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jinfeng Chang: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Michiel Dijk: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Hugo Valin: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Charlotte Janssens: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Lin Ma: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zhaohai Bai: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Mario Herrero: Cornell University
Pete Smith: University of Aberdeen
Michael Obersteiner: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Nature Sustainability, 2021, vol. 4, issue 12, 1042-1051

Abstract: Abstract Satisfying China’s food demand without harming the environment is one of the greatest sustainability challenges for the coming decades. Here we provide a comprehensive forward-looking assessment of the environmental impacts of China’s growing demand on the country itself and on its trading partners. We find that the increasing food demand, especially for livestock products (~16%–30% across all scenarios), would domestically require ~3–12 Mha of additional pasture between 2020 and 2050, resulting in ~−2% to +16% growth in agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The projected ~15%–24% reliance on agricultural imports in 2050 would result in ~90–175 Mha of agricultural land area and ~88–226 MtCO2-equivalent yr−1of GHG emissions virtually imported to China, which account for ~26%–46% and ~13%–32% of China’s global environmental impacts, respectively. The distribution of the environmental impacts between China and the rest of the world would substantially depend on development of trade openness. Thus, to limit the negative environmental impacts of its growing food consumption, besides domestic policies, China needs to also take responsibility in the development of sustainable international trade.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00784-6

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