Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

Anna Chrysafi (), Vili Virkki, Mika Jalava, Vilma Sandström, Johannes Piipponen, Miina Porkka, Steven J. Lade, Kelsey Mere, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Laura Scherer, Lauren S. Andersen, Elena Bennett, Kate A. Brauman, Gregory S. Cooper, Adriana Palma, Petra Döll, Andrea S. Downing, Timothy C. DuBois, Ingo Fetzer, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Dieter Gerten, Hadi Jaafar, Jonas Jägermeyr, Fernando Jaramillo, Martin Jung, Helena Kahiluoto, Luis Lassaletta, Anson W. Mackay, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Mesfin M. Mekonnen, Kirsty L. Nash, Amandine V. Pastor, Navin Ramankutty, Brad Ridoutt, Stefan Siebert, Benno I. Simmons, Arie Staal, Zhongxiao Sun, Arne Tobian, Arkaitz Usubiaga-Liaño, Ruud J. Ent, Arnout Soesbergen, Peter H. Verburg, Yoshihide Wada, Sam Zipper and Matti Kummu ()
Additional contact information
Anna Chrysafi: Aalto University
Vili Virkki: Aalto University
Mika Jalava: Aalto University
Vilma Sandström: Aalto University
Johannes Piipponen: Aalto University
Miina Porkka: Aalto University
Steven J. Lade: Stockholm University
Kelsey Mere: Tampere University
Lan Wang-Erlandsson: Stockholm University
Laura Scherer: Leiden University
Lauren S. Andersen: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
Elena Bennett: McGill University
Kate A. Brauman: University of Alabama
Gregory S. Cooper: University of Sheffield
Adriana Palma: Natural History Museum
Petra Döll: Goethe University Frankfurt
Andrea S. Downing: Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Timothy C. DuBois: Stockholm University
Ingo Fetzer: Stockholm University
Elizabeth A. Fulton: CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere
Dieter Gerten: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
Hadi Jaafar: American University of Beirut
Jonas Jägermeyr: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
Fernando Jaramillo: Stockholm University
Martin Jung: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Helena Kahiluoto: LUT University
Luis Lassaletta: Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Anson W. Mackay: University College London
Daniel Mason-D’Croz: Cornell University
Mesfin M. Mekonnen: University of Alabama
Kirsty L. Nash: University of Tasmania
Amandine V. Pastor: ITAP, University of Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro
Navin Ramankutty: University of British Columbia
Brad Ridoutt: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Agriculture and Food
Stefan Siebert: University of Göttingen
Benno I. Simmons: University of Exeter
Arie Staal: Utrecht University
Zhongxiao Sun: Leiden University
Arne Tobian: Stockholm University
Arkaitz Usubiaga-Liaño: University College London
Ruud J. Ent: Delft University of Technology
Arnout Soesbergen: King’s College London
Peter H. Verburg: Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)
Yoshihide Wada: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Sam Zipper: University of Kansas
Matti Kummu: Aalto University
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Daniel Mason-D'Croz

Nature Sustainability, 2022, vol. 5, issue 10, 830-842

Abstract: Abstract Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.

Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6

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