Economics at your fingertips  

Modelling human–natural systems interactions with implications for twenty-first-century warming

Veerabhadran Ramanathan (), Yangyang Xu () and Anthony Versaci
Additional contact information
Veerabhadran Ramanathan: University of California, San Diego
Yangyang Xu: Texas A&M University
Anthony Versaci: University of California, San Diego

Nature Sustainability, 2022, vol. 5, issue 3, 263-271

Abstract: Abstract The redesign of energy and economic systems to stabilize climate change is hindered by the lack of quantitative treatment of the role that human–natural systems interactions play in what society can do to tackle climate change. Here we present an integrated socio–energy–ecologic–climate model framework for understanding the role of human–natural systems interactions in climate change. We focus on constraints on climate stabilization imposed by feedbacks between global warming and societal actions to decarbonize energy use and to scale up atmospheric-carbon extraction. The energy–climate feedbacks are modelled through four warming-dependent response times for societal, policy and technological actions inferred from historical data. We show that a lack of societal response beyond 2030 would result in a warming in excess of 3 °C. Speeding up societal response times and technology diffusion times by a factor of two along with a dramatic boost in start-up investment in renewables and atmospheric-carbon extraction technologies and short-lived climate pollutants mitigation by 2030 can stabilize the warming below 1.5 °C. The model’s analytical framework and the analyses presented here reveal the fundamental importance of factoring in the role of human–natural systems interactions in the transition to zero emissions when formulating and designing robust climate solutions.

Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00826-z

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Sustainability is currently edited by Monica Contestabile

More articles in Nature Sustainability from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().

Page updated 2022-05-12
Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:5:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1038_s41893-021-00826-z