The expansion of tree plantations across tropical biomes

Matthew E. Fagan (), Do-Hyung Kim, Wesley Settle, Lexie Ferry, Justin Drew, Haven Carlson, Joshua Slaughter, Joshua Schaferbien, Alexandra Tyukavina, Nancy L. Harris, Elizabeth Goldman and Elsa M. Ordway
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Matthew E. Fagan: University of Maryland Baltimore County
Do-Hyung Kim: United Nations Children’s Fund
Wesley Settle: University of Maryland Baltimore County
Lexie Ferry: University of Maryland Baltimore County
Justin Drew: University of Maryland Baltimore County
Haven Carlson: University of Maryland Baltimore County
Joshua Slaughter: University of Maryland Baltimore County
Joshua Schaferbien: University of Maryland Baltimore County
Alexandra Tyukavina: University of Maryland
Nancy L. Harris: World Resources Institute
Elizabeth Goldman: World Resources Institute
Elsa M. Ordway: Harvard University

Nature Sustainability, 2022, vol. 5, issue 8, 681-688

Abstract: Abstract Across the tropics, recent agricultural shifts have led to a rapid expansion of tree plantations, often into intact forests and grasslands. However, this expansion is poorly characterized. Here, we report tropical tree plantation expansion between 2000 and 2012, based on classifying nearly 7 million unique patches of observed tree cover gain using optical and radar satellite imagery. The resulting map was a subsample of all tree cover gain but we coupled it with an extensive random accuracy assessment (n = 4,269 points) to provide unbiased estimates of expansion. Most predicted gain patches (69.2%) consisted of small patches of natural regrowth (31.6 ± 11.9 Mha). However, expansion of tree plantations also dominated increases in tree cover across the tropics (32.2 ± 9.4 Mha) with 92% of predicted plantation expansion occurring in biodiversity hotspots and 14% in arid biomes. We estimate that tree plantations expanded into 9.2% of accessible protected areas across the humid tropics, most frequently in southeast Asia, west Africa and Brazil. Given international tree planting commitments, it is critical to understand how future tree plantation expansion will affect remaining natural ecosystems.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00904-w

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