Impacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality

Crelis F. Rammelt (), Joyeeta Gupta, Diana Liverman, Joeri Scholtens, Daniel Ciobanu, Jesse F. Abrams, Xuemei Bai, Lauren Gifford, Christopher Gordon, Margot Hurlbert, Cristina Y. A. Inoue, Lisa Jacobson, Steven J. Lade, Timothy M. Lenton, David I. Armstrong McKay, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Chukwumerije Okereke, Ilona M. Otto, Laura M. Pereira, Klaudia Prodani, Johan Rockström, Ben Stewart-Koster, Peter H. Verburg and Caroline Zimm
Additional contact information
Crelis F. Rammelt: University of Amsterdam
Joyeeta Gupta: University of Amsterdam
Diana Liverman: University of Arizona
Joeri Scholtens: University of Amsterdam
Jesse F. Abrams: University of Exeter
Xuemei Bai: Australian National University
Lauren Gifford: University of Arizona
Christopher Gordon: University of Ghana
Margot Hurlbert: University of Regina
Cristina Y. A. Inoue: Radboud University
Lisa Jacobson: Future Earth Secretariat
Steven J. Lade: Australian National University
Timothy M. Lenton: University of Exeter
David I. Armstrong McKay: University of Exeter
Nebojsa Nakicenovic: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Chukwumerije Okereke: Alex Ekwueme Federal University
Ilona M. Otto: University of Graz
Laura M. Pereira: Stockholm University
Klaudia Prodani: University of Amsterdam
Johan Rockström: Stockholm University
Ben Stewart-Koster: Griffith University
Peter H. Verburg: Vrije University Amsterdam
Caroline Zimm: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Nature Sustainability, 2023, vol. 6, issue 2, 212-221

Abstract: Abstract The Sustainable Development Goals aim to improve access to resources and services, reduce environmental degradation, eradicate poverty and reduce inequality. However, the magnitude of the environmental burden that would arise from meeting the needs of the poorest is under debate—especially when compared to much larger burdens from the rich. We show that the ‘Great Acceleration’ of human impacts was characterized by a ‘Great Inequality’ in using and damaging the environment. We then operationalize ‘just access’ to minimum energy, water, food and infrastructure. We show that achieving just access in 2018, with existing inequalities, technologies and behaviours, would have produced 2–26% additional impacts on the Earth’s natural systems of climate, water, land and nutrients—thus further crossing planetary boundaries. These hypothetical impacts, caused by about a third of humanity, equalled those caused by the wealthiest 1–4%. Technological and behavioural changes thus far, while important, did not deliver just access within a stable Earth system. Achieving these goals therefore calls for a radical redistribution of resources.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00995-5

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