Global spillover effects of the European Green Deal and plausible mitigation options

Honglin Zhong, Yanxian Li, Jiaying Ding, Benedikt Bruckner, Kuishuang Feng (), Laixiang Sun (), Christina Prell, Yuli Shan and Klaus Hubacek ()
Additional contact information
Honglin Zhong: Shandong University
Yanxian Li: University of Groningen
Jiaying Ding: Shandong University
Benedikt Bruckner: University of Groningen
Kuishuang Feng: University of Maryland
Laixiang Sun: University of Maryland
Christina Prell: University of Groningen
Yuli Shan: University of Birmingham
Klaus Hubacek: University of Groningen

Nature Sustainability, 2024, vol. 7, issue 11, 1501-1511

Abstract: Abstract Achieving European Green Deal (EGD) targets for carbon removal and ecological restoration would reduce agricultural and forestry production within the European Union yet simultaneously extend ecosystem impacts elsewhere. Here we quantify such spillover impacts by coupling an extended multi-regional input–output analysis with an agro-ecological zones model. We find that EGD’s agricultural and forestry targets set for 2030 could result in a 23.9 Mha increase in demand for agricultural land outside the European Union, which in turn would lead to an increase in land-use-related carbon emissions by 758.9 MtCO2-equivalent (244.8% of EGD’s carbon removal target in the land, land-use-change and forestry sectors) and a biodiversity loss of 3.86 million mean species abundance loss. Such spillover impacts far exceed the ecological benefits from EGD conservation-based import policies, such as promoting deforestation-free products and phasing out food-based biofuel. We then propose three options beyond the primary targets of the EGD with the aim to mitigate such spillover impacts. The assessment of these options reveals the critical role of reducing meat and dairy consumption, highlighting the impact of consumer behaviour on environmental outcomes. This raises questions about public awareness, willingness to change diets and the role of policy in influencing consumer behaviours.

Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-024-01428-1 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natsus:v:7:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1038_s41893-024-01428-1

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/natsustain/

DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01428-1

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Sustainability is currently edited by Monica Contestabile

More articles in Nature Sustainability from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().