Efficacy of mitigation strategies for aquifer sustainability under climate change

Chetan Sharma (), Hakan Başağaoğlu (), Icen Yoosefdoost, Adrienne Wootten, Debarati Chakraborty-Reddy, F. Paul Bertetti, Ali Mirchi and Debaditya Chakraborty ()
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Chetan Sharma: The University of Texas at San Antonio
Hakan Başağaoğlu: Edwards Aquifer Authority
Icen Yoosefdoost: The University of Texas at San Antonio
Adrienne Wootten: University of Oklahoma
Debarati Chakraborty-Reddy: The University of Texas at San Antonio
F. Paul Bertetti: Edwards Aquifer Authority
Ali Mirchi: Oklahoma State University
Debaditya Chakraborty: The University of Texas at San Antonio

Nature Sustainability, 2025, vol. 8, issue 1, 44-53

Abstract: Abstract Groundwater systems play a pivotal role in ensuring food and water security while maintaining vital ecosystem functions. The depletion of numerous global aquifers, however, raises concerns regarding the sustainability of groundwater withdrawals and environmental flows. Despite efforts to mitigate this decline, there remains a striking gap in proving the effectiveness of these measures. Our research focuses on the karstic Edwards Aquifer system in Texas to assess how effectively current mitigation strategies are protecting groundwater levels and spring flows, which are essential for biodiversity and water security. Using counterfactual artificial intelligence, we address the critical question: ‘What would have happened and may happen in the absence of the mitigation measures?’. This approach offers deep insights into both historical impacts and future projections under intermediate- and high-emission climate scenarios. By simulating what might have happened and could happen in the future without these mitigation measures, our approach provides a robust analysis of the real-world benefits of groundwater management strategies, highlighting their role in enhancing climate resilience and ensuring the sustainability of aquifers.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01477-6

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