The unrealized potential of agroforestry for an emissions-intensive agricultural commodity

Alexander Becker, Jan D. Wegner, Evans Dawoe, Konrad Schindler, William J. Thompson, Christian Bunn, Rachael D. Garrett, Fabio Castro-Llanos, Simon P. Hart and Wilma J. Blaser-Hart ()
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Alexander Becker: ETH Zurich
Jan D. Wegner: University of Zurich
Evans Dawoe: Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology
Konrad Schindler: ETH Zurich
William J. Thompson: University of Oxford
Christian Bunn: International Center for Tropical Agriculture
Rachael D. Garrett: University of Cambridge
Fabio Castro-Llanos: International Center for Tropical Agriculture
Simon P. Hart: The University of Queensland
Wilma J. Blaser-Hart: The University of Queensland

Nature Sustainability, 2025, vol. 8, issue 9, 994-1003

Abstract: Abstract Reconciling agricultural production with climate change mitigation is a formidable sustainability problem. Retaining trees in agricultural systems is one proposed solution, but the magnitude of the current and future potential benefit that trees contribute to climate change mitigation remains uncertain. Here we help to resolve these issues across a West African region that produces ~60% of the world’s cocoa, a crop contributing one of the highest carbon footprints of all foods. Using machine learning, we mapped shade-tree cover and carbon stocks across the region and found that the existing average shade-tree cover is low (~13%) and poorly aligned with climate threats. Yet, increasing shade-tree cover to a minimum of 30% could sequester an additional 307 MtCO2e, enough to offset ~167% of contemporary cocoa-related emissions in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire—without reducing production. Our approach is transferable to other shade-grown crops and aligns with emerging carbon market and sustainability reporting frameworks.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01608-7

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