Recession in the Mexican states: magnitude and causes

Miguel Ángel Díaz Carreño (), Pablo Mejía Reyes, Alfredo Erquizio Espinal and Roberto Rodriguez ()
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Miguel Ángel Díaz Carreño: Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Facultad de Economía, México
Pablo Mejía Reyes: Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Facultad de Economía, México
Alfredo Erquizio Espinal: Universidad de Sonora, Facultad de Economía, México

Contaduría y Administración, 2015, vol. 60, issue 6, 147-168

Abstract: This paper analyzes the role of trade, output structure and capital flows in the drop of output in the Mexican states during the Great Recession (2007-2009) by using a nonpa¬rametric regression approach. The results show that the main variables that explain state output drops, measured on the basis of the state coincident index (ICE) and the manufactu¬ring production index (MAN), are the ratios of the “maquiladora” and the automotive pro¬duction to the manufacturing production (Maq/Man and A/Man, respectively), while when output drops are measured by using the quarterly indicator of the state economic activity (QIEEA), variables such as Maq/Man and the specialization indicator of the automotive production(IE-A) were the most significant explicative variables.

Keywords: Mexican states; Great recession; Non parametric regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nax:conyad:v:60:y:2015:i:6:p:147-168

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