An unequal reaction of housing starts to house prices in different regions of Poland

Krzysztof Olszewski (), Jacek Łaszek and Joanna Waszczuk
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Krzysztof Olszewski: SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Business Administration
Jacek Łaszek: SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Business Administration
Joanna Waszczuk: SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Business Administration

Bank i Kredyt, 2023, vol. 54, issue 4, 437-458

Abstract: In this article, we examine the developer’s decisions regarding construction under process in relation to prices in the 16 voivodeship capital cities, i.e. the biggest real estate markets in Poland. Our aim is to determine whether developers react in a similar fashion in different voivodeship capital cities, or whether significant differences can be observed. The problem of housing availability is important for the mobility of workers and, therefore, is an important factor of sustainable regional development for Poland. We study the correlation of leads and lags of cycles in house prices in the primary and secondary market and wages with the cycles of new construction under way. We find that for the biggest markets there is a strong correlation between the lags of secondary housing market prices with construction under way. However, no clear pattern can be observed for the smaller markets, which calls for further research.

Keywords: housing under construction; housing prices; regional housing market differences; cycles; cross-correlations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O18 R11 R30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:54:y:2023:i:4:p:437-458

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