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Four Years After the Base-Year Revision: Taking Stock of the Debate Surrounding India’s National Accounts Estimates

R. Nagaraj, Amey Sapre and Rajeswari Sengupta

India Policy Forum, 2020, vol. 16, issue 1, 55-107

Abstract: In 2015, with the release of the 2011–12 base-year GDP series, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) substantially revised the way GDP is calculated in India. According to the new series, India is the fastest growing large economy in the world. However, other trusted measures of the state of the economy convey a discordant picture. This discrepancy has led to an active debate over the last few years. Numerous studies by academic scholars have identified, analyzed, and documented the problems with the kind of data used in the new series as well as with the specific methodologies applied. The criticisms have cast persistent doubts on the new GDP series and have dented the credibility of India’s National Accounts Statistics. The debate seems at an impasse. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive summary of the issues surrounding the new GDP series as highlighted by academic experts and outline recommendations for a possible way forward to resolve India’s GDP data crisis.

Keywords: GDP Measurement; National Accounts Statistics; National Income; Manufacturing; Gross Value Added; Base-Year Revision (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 E11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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