Das transatlantische Handels- und Investitionsabkommen: Arbeitsplatzprognosen und Risikoanalysen

Stefan Beck and Christoph Scherrer

WSI-Mitteilungen, 2014, vol. 67, issue 8, 581-589

Abstract: While civil society organizations, including many trade unions, increasingly criticize the envisioned Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), econometric studies such as the ones produced by the ifo Institute (Institute for Economic Research) in Munich calculate high welfare gains. The ifo-studies are innovative insofar as they attempt to avoid the weaknesses of the equilibrium models typically used for assessing the impact of a free trade agreement. However, it remains doubtful if the ifo studies are successful in overcoming these weaknesses by basing the parameters of their models on econometric estimates of already existing free trade agreements and by allowing for unemployment and imperfect competition. After a brief introduction to the societal risks of the TTIP, this article evaluates the ifo-studies using the criteria of consistency and of plausibility of the model’s assumed causalities.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.5771/0342-300X-2014-8-581

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