Long-Term Fiscal Effects of Public Pension Reform in Norway – A Generational Accounting Analysis

Christian Hagist, Bernd Raffelhüschen, Alf Erling Risa and Erling Vårdal ()
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Christian Hagist: Research Center for Generational Contracts, Freiburg University, Germany.
Bernd Raffelhüschen: Research Center for Generational Contracts, Freiburg University, Germany.
Alf Erling Risa: Department of Economics, University of Bergen, Norway.

Nordic Journal of Political Economy, 2013, vol. 38, 2

Abstract: "Generational accounts" measure the fiscal sustainability of the public sector. We ask whether contributions from the Government Pension Fund and remaining oil and gas wealth in the ground, together with the pension reform taking effect in 2011, are sufficiently large to secure generational balance in Norway. Our results show that the pension reform has a substantial effect, and contributes as much to generational balance as the total petroleum wealth. Structural characteristics of higher employment and lower transfer payments typical for cyclical upturns improve the GAs substantially. Optimistic assumptions regarding these structural characteristics do not remove the need for further reforms to obtain fiscal sustainability of the Norwegian public sector.

JEL-codes: H55 H68 J10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:noj:journl:v:37:y:2013:p:2

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