Asymmetry of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy: Effects on macroeconomic indicators

S. I. Kolesnik (), P. S. Kartaev () and A. V. Zubarev ()

Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2025, issue 10

Abstract: This study tests for asymmetric effects of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy on inflation and output. To distinguish the economy’s responses to monetary tightening versus easing, we employ a SVAR model with a non‑linear transmission of monetary shocks. Using monthly data for 2014—2024, we show a marked sign asymmetry in price dynamics: a negative monetary policy shock (a cut in the key policy rate) accelerates inflation more than a comparably sized positive shock (a rate increase) slows it. This effect may reflect nominal wage rigidity (especially in downward adjustments), household behavioral factors, and an asymmetry in the exchange‑rate channel, which we also document. We further find an asymmetric response of the credit impulse — capturing the operation of the credit channel of the transmission mechanism, i.e., banks’ ability to pass the monetary shock to the real economy — as it reacts only to monetary tightening. By contrast, the output response is close to symmetric. These results underscore the need for a cautious approach to easing monetary conditions in the Russian economy.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/viewFile/5542/2788 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2025:id:5542

DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2025-10-44-61

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Voprosy Ekonomiki from NP Voprosy Ekonomiki
Bibliographic data for series maintained by NEICON ().