Business uncertainty analysis using LC-curves

F. T. Aleskerov (), I. S. Lola (), D. G. Asoskov (), D. A. Zabelina () and R. D. Nazarova ()

Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2025, issue 11

Abstract: The LC-curve method, a novel approach to time-series analysis, was applied to a composite Business Uncertainty Index (BUI) constructed from regular Rosstat business surveys. This approach made it possible to trace uncertainty trajectories across Russia’s major industries and sub-sectors using two index specifications: ex ante (expected) and ex post (realized). The empirical analysis for 2020—2024 demonstrates the high sensitivity of LC-curves to economic shocks and their relevance for identifying the stages of business activity across industries. Both crisis periods within the study horizon — 2020 and 2022 — were clearly captured by the curves, with the pandemic showing a more pronounced negative impact. The forecast dynamics suggest that industrial activity will enter a phase of slower growth in 2025. Particular attention is given to medium-highand high-technology industries, highlighting those that exhibit the greatest resilience and are likely to play a key role in the structural transformation of the Russian economy.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2025:id:5563

DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2025-11-143-157

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