Factors of the Russian ruble exchange rate dynamics

А. V. Bojechkova (), P. V. Trunin () and I. I. Yakovleva ()

Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2026, issue 8

Abstract: The paper discusses approaches to modeling the exchange rate and analyzes trends in the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate over the past decade. Changes in the degree of cross-border capital mobility in the context of the structural transformation of the Russian economy are considered. A behavioral model of the exchange rate using DOLS is estimated on data from February 2015 to December 2025. The results show that until 2022, the key factors influencing the ruble exchange rate were oil prices and the interest rate differential. After the introduction of a new budget rule in February 2017, the relationship between the exchange rate and oil prices weakened. Since the imposition of trade and financial sanctions in February 2022, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble has become primarily influenced by the balance of supply of and demand for foreign currency on the domestic foreign exchange market, driven by the actions of importers and exporters, respectively. At the same time, the sensitivity of the ruble exchange rate to the interest rate differential has significantly decreased.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2026:id:5954

DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2026-8-74-94

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