Risks of artificial intelligence adoption for employment in Russia

R. I. Kapeliushnikov ()

Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2026, issue 8

Abstract: This study provides assessment in the Russian literature of the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technology on the Russian labor market. Methodologically, the analysis relies on a system of scores measuring the risk of AI adoption for detailed occupations at the four-digit level, developed by the International Labour Organization. The empirical basis is microdata from the Rosstat Labor Force Surveys. According to our estimates, the average AI risk index for Russia is 0.3. One in ten jobs in the Russian economy is exposed to high AI risk, and approximately one in three to significant risk. This is lower than in developed countries but higher than in developing ones. Most occupations are almost completely immune to AI risk, while the share of jobs facing the prospect of full automation is negligible, at less than 1%. The potential impact of AI is concentrated in an extremely narrow range of occupations. Clerical workers are likely to be its primary target. The analysis indicates that in Russia the adoption of AI will involve not so much the elimination of entire occupations as the reconfiguration of tasks within existing ones, which will not disappear. Consequently, fears of extremely high technological unemployment due to AI adoption appear to be unfounded alarmism.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2026:id:6110

DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2026-8-5-28

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