Structural change and economic growth in Central Asia

V. E. Gimpelson () and A. V. Chernyavskiy ()

Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2026, issue 10

Abstract: This study explores the relationship between economic growth and structural change in Central Asian countries countries from 2000 to 2024. Large gaps in labor productivity across sectors in these countries drive labor reallocation between economic activities. The reallocation of labor toward more productive sectors, along with intra-sectoral productivity growth, can contribute to overall economic growth. We apply a simple shift-share decomposition methodology to evaluate the contributions of these components to economic growth across four Central Asian, using data from the UN Statistics Division and the ILO database. Our analysis indicates that sectoral labor productivity growth was the primary driver of aggregate productivity growth in the region. Structural transformation accounted for 13—17% of total productivity growth in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, whereas its impact in Uzbekistan was minimal. Finally, we discuss the reasons for limited structural change and the main barriers to labor mobility in the region.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2026:id:6160

DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2026-10-68-93

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