Um modelo integrado econométrico+insumo-produto para previsão de longo prazo da demanda de combustíveis no Brasil [An integrated econometric+input-output model for long term forecast of fuel demand in Brazil]

Flaviane Souza Santiago, Rogério Silva de Mattos and Fernando Perobelli
Additional contact information
Flaviane Souza Santiago: Cedeplar/UFMG
Rogério Silva de Mattos: UFJF

Nova Economia, 2011, vol. 21, issue 3, 423-455

Abstract: The article presents an integrated econometric + input - output model for generating long-run forecasts of fuel demand in Brazil. The model is based on the integration, by means of a linking strategy, of a vector error correction model with a hybrid input-output model for the Brazilian economy and is capable of forecasting on a yearly basis consumption of four groups of fuels: gas, diesel, fuel oil, and alcohol. In model development, the econometric and the integrated models underwent predictive tests, with the latter being calibrated for optimum performance, using data for the years 2004 to 2007. The integrated model is then used to generate forecasts from 2008 to 2017. The forecasts are based on two alternative scenarios, one predicting a short, and the other a long, duration for the current world economic crisis. The results indicate that under both scenarios a substantial increase of fuel demand is to be expected in the next 10 years.

Keywords: econometrics; input-output; integrated model; energy; fuel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 R15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&pid ... g=en&nrm=iso&tlng=pt (application/pdf)
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext ... g=en&nrm=iso&tlng=pt (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nov:artigo:v:21:y:2011:i:3:p:423-455

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Av. Antonio Carlos, 6627 - Predio da FACE Belo Horizonte, 31270-901 Brazil
https://revistas.fac ... dex.php/novaeconomia

Access Statistics for this article

Nova Economia is currently edited by Gustavo de Britto Rocha

More articles in Nova Economia from Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil) Av. Antonio Carlos, 6627 - Predio da FACE Belo Horizonte, 31270-901 Brazil. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Lucas Resende de Carvalho ().