Dos “voos de galinha” ao crescimento sustentado? Projetando o crescimento potencial brasileiro para o período 2013-2020, com ênfase no efeito do setor petróleo [From unsustained to sustained growth? Forecasting Brazilian potential growth for the period 2013-2020, with emphasis on the effect of the oil sector]

Breno Carvalho Roos and André Luis Cabral de Lourenço
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Breno Carvalho Roos: UFRJ
André Luis Cabral de Lourenço: UFRN

Nova Economia, 2016, vol. 26, issue 3, 809-854

Abstract: This paper discusses the role that oil industry plays in the Brazilian macroeconomics and uses a projection method to formulate different scenarios, covering the 2013-2020 period. A model that emphasizes the external sector is used to evaluate the hypothesis that development of oil industry - through the pre-salt layer - will raise potential economic growth of the country, considering that restrictions on balance of payments and fiscal can be mitigated. It was found that international oil price is a key element for domestic economic policy, given its impact on domestic prices. The projections indicate that the average growth rate of Brazil - conditional on trajectory of increasing oil production and economic policies adopted - will follow low until 2020.

Keywords: potential growth; Brazil; oil; forecast; external sector (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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