A taxa de câmbio e os ajustes no saldo da balança comercial brasileira: uma análise setorial da Curva J [Exchange rate and adjustments in the Brazilian trade balance: a sectoral analysis of the J Curve]

Hélio Ramos () and Maysa Evellyn Porfírio Ferreira
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Maysa Evellyn Porfírio Ferreira: UFPB

Nova Economia, 2016, vol. 26, issue 3, 887-907

Abstract: This paper aims to assess whether or not the phenomenon J Curve for 19 sectors of the Brazilian manufacturing industry. Data were collected from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC) and the variables used were the Effective Real Exchange Rate, GDP of Brazil, World GDP corresponding to the period 1996-2012. Methodology used was the ARDL cointegration model proposed in Pesaran et al. (2001). The results suggest that only four sectors - Aeronautics and Aerospace, Wood and its Products and Pulp and Paper, NE Manufactures and Recycled Goods - seem to exhibit the effect incomplete J Curve. Moreover, the sector of Naval Construction and Repair, presents incomplete evidence and reversed the curve phenomenon J. Therefore, the occurrence of incomplete Curve J is not associated with the degree of technological intensity sectors.

Keywords: J Curve; cointegration test; trade balance; exchange rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 F14 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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