Modeling Negotiations Over Water and Ecosystem Management: Uncertainty and Political Viability

Rachael E. Goodhue, Susan Sayre and Leo Simon

Strategic Behavior and the Environment, 2016, vol. 6, issue 1-2, 73-134

Abstract: We present a modeling approach for generating robust predictions about how changes in institutional, economic, and political considerations will influence the outcome of political negotiations over complex water-ecosystem policy debates. Evaluating the political viability of proposed policies is challenging for researchers in these complex natural and political environments; there is limited information with which to map policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. Our analysis evaluates the viability of policy options using a probabilistic political viability criterion that explicitly recognizes the existence of modeling uncertainty. The approach is used to conduct a detailed case study of the future of California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Several other possible applications of the approach are briefly discussed.

Keywords: Pareto optimality; Delta; California; political economy; deep uncertainty; robust decision making; modeling uncertainty. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: P48 Q25 Q34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:now:jnlsbe:102.00000067

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