 Is the Ageing of the French Population Unavoidable?Nathalie Blanpain Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, 2020, issue 520-521, 65-85 Abstract: [eng] A population projection is not a certain prediction, but rather an estimate of what the future evolution of the population might be under certain assumptions about changes in mortality, fertility and migration, around a central scenario that suggests a continuation of recent demographic trends. This article looks at the assumptions made for the population projections conducted for France in 2016. It first reviews the approach used by Insee to establish them, and then examines the more or less certain nature of the main results. The ageing process observed for more than a century is expected to continue; however, if an indicator based on "prospective age" is used, the population would not age. The evolution of the population as a whole is uncertain. In 2070, the size of the population of the 28-member European Union would be close to that of 2019. The improvement in life expectancy combined with a positive migratory balance would compensate for a fertility level that does not allow for the renewal of generations. JEL-codes: J11 N34 (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nse:ecosta:ecostat_2020_520d_5 DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2020.520d.2029 Access Statistics for this article Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics is currently edited by Dominique Goux More articles in Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics from Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE) Contact information at EDIRC. |
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