National Institute UK Economic Outlook

2021 - 2025

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Foreward - The Chancellor's Trilemma pp. 3: David Aikman
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Summer 2025 - Summary pp. 4-5: Niesr
The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 6-38: Benjamin Caswell, Fergus Jimenez-England, Hailey Low and Stephen Millard
Box A: New Evidence on Nowcasting Monthly UK GDP pp. 10-16: Paula Bejarano Carbo, Rory Macqueen and Efthymios Xylangouras
Box B: Housing Divides – Cultural Diversity, Property Values, and the Uneven Geography of Opportunity in Northern Ireland pp. 39-42: Rachel Cho, Hisham Farag, Christoph Görtz, Danny McGowan, Huyen Nguyen and Max Schröder
Box C: Human Capital and Stagnating Productivity in the United Kingdom pp. 43-48: Aditya Goenka and Lin Liu
Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 49-67: Eliza da Silva Gomes, Adrian Pabst and Tibor Szendrei
Box D: Understanding Productivity Variations across the United Kingdom pp. 58-62: Arnab Bhattacharjee and Gopal K. Basak
Forecast tables pp. 68-76: Niesr

Forward pp. 3: Adrian Pabst
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Spring 2025 - Summary pp. 4-5: Niesr
The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 6-38: Benjamin Caswell, Fergus Jimenez-England, Hailey Low and Stephen Millard
Box A: UK Inflation: The energy price surprise pp. 9-11: Francis Breedon
Box B: The Effects of the Rise in NICs pp. 12-17: Edmund Cornforth
Regional Regeneration and the Outlook for the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 39-55: Eliza da Silva Gomes, Adrian Pabst, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei
Forecast tables pp. 56-63: Niesr

Foreward: A Tale of Two Halves pp. 3-4: Adrian Pabst
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Winter 2025 - Summary pp. 5-6: Niesr
The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 7-42: Benjamin Caswell, Fergus Jimenez-England, Hailey Low, Stephen Millard and Max Mosley
Box A: An Alternative UK Economic Forecast pp. 11-16: Jane Binner, Huw Dixon, Barry Jones, Logan Kelly and Jon Tepper
Box B: Forecasting Average Weekly Earnings pp. 17-21: Meg Tulloch
Regional Regeneration and the Outlook for the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 43-85: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Eliza da Silva Gomes, Adrian Pabst, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei
Box C: Mind the Regional Transport Connectivity Gap pp. 55-62: Larissa da Silva Marioni
Forecast tables pp. 86-94: Niesr
To What Extent Does Public Investment Impact Long–Run Output? pp. 95-102: Monica George Micail

Foreward - Of Fiscal Straitjackets and Flexibility pp. 3-4: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Summer 2024 pp. 5-6: Niesr
The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 7-54: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Benjamin Caswell, Fergus Jimenez-England, Hailey Low, Monica George Michail, Stephen Millard and Max Mosley
Box A: Measures of Labour Market Slack pp. 15-24: Fergus Jimenez-England
Box B: Pensions, Savings and Investment pp. 33-36: Andrew Smithers
Regional Regeneration and the Outlook for the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 43-88: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Eliza da Silva Gomes, Adrian Pabst, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei
Box C: The Materiality of Nature-Related Financial Risks to the UK pp. 47-53: Jimena Alvarez
Forecast tables pp. 89-97: Niesr

Foreward - The Public Investment Aspiration pp. 3-4: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Summer 2024 pp. 5-6: Niesr
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Summer 2024 – The Economic Inheritance for the New Government pp. 7-22: Paula Bejarano Carbo, Arnab Bhattacharjee, Benjamin Caswell, Hailey Low, Monica George Michail, Stephen Millard, Max Mosley, Adrian Pabst, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei
Box A: Public Financing and Investment pp. 11-17: Francisco Sebastian
The Macroeconomic Outlook pp. 23-42: Paula Bejarano Carbo, Benjamin Caswell, Hailey Low, Monica George Michail, Stephen Millard and Max Mosley
Box B: Should the Bank of England Adopt Unremunerated Reserve Requirements? pp. 39-42: Tim Young
Regional Regeneration and the Outlook for the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 43-72: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Eliza da Silva Gomes, Adrian Pabst, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei
Forecast tables pp. 73-81: Niesr

Foreward pp. 3-4: Adrian Pabst
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Spring 2024 – Summary pp. 5-47: Niesr
UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 7-47: Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Ben Caswell, Stephen Millard, Monica George Michail and Max Mosley
Box A: A Neural Network Approach to Forecasting Inflation pp. 8-11: Jane Binner, Huw Dixon, Barry Jones and Jon Tepper
Box B: Examining Rising Inactivity and NHS Waiting Times pp. 35-47: Max Mosley
Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 48-75: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei
Forecast tables pp. 76-84: Niesr

Foreward pp. 3-4: Adrian Pabst
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Winter 2024 – Summary pp. 5-5: Niesr
UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 7-50: Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Ben Caswell, Stephen Millard, Huw Dixon and Max Mosley
Box A: Implications of the transition from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution pensions in the UK pp. 29-33: Francisco Sebastian
Box B: Job boom or job bust? The effect of the pandemic on actual and measured job and employment growth pp. 36-41: Bill Wells
Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 51-87: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Ben Caswell, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei
Box C: The state of local government finances pp. 79-83: Jack Shaw
Forecast tables pp. 88-96: Niesr