Box A: A Neural Network Approach to Forecasting Inflation

Jane Binner, Huw Dixon, Barry Jones and Jon Tepper

National Institute UK Economic Outlook, 2024, issue 14, 8-11

Abstract: We construct the following two types of MRN models of inflation: a) a simple MRN consisting of two input variables: the mom percentage change in inflation (auto-regressive term) and the natural log of the price level; b)a complex MRN that includes the following additional five exogenous variables: real GDP, PPI index for industrial output, UK gilts 10 year yield, sterling effective exchange rate (index level) and adjusted Divisia price dual. (See Binner et al. (2023) for details of the construction of the Divisia price dual).

Date: 2024
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