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Adrian Pabst ()

National Institute UK Economic Outlook, 2025, issue 18, 3

Abstract: Faced with heightened international tensions, the UK economy is struggling to escape from the impasse of sluggish economic growth and persistent inflation. While global factors such as tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks have absorbed much attention, it is primarily domestic drivers that determine the fragile economic outlook. A mix of subdued business confidence and rising costs have put pressure on private investment, while the fiscal stimulus following last October's Budget is yet to take effect. Above all, the lack of a comprehensive, credible plan adds to uncertainty, as speculation over further cuts and possible tax increases dominates the debate in the run-up to the Spending Review scheduled for 11 June and the Autumn Budget.

Date: 2025
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