Box B: How likely are we to see a major recession in 2022?

Peter Dixon

National Institute UK Economic Outlook, 2022, issue 6, 21-24

Abstract: Until relatively recently it seemed unlikely that the UK economy would fall into another recession - by which we mean in this case a year-on-year fall in GDP - as the country continued its post-Covid recovery. Since our February 2022 forecast, however, a number of factors have conspired to cast clouds over the economic outlook. In addition to the inflation surge, resulting from rising energy costs and supply constraints in the wake of the pandemic, the economy now faces an additional uncertainty shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Date: 2022
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