National Institute Global Economic Outlook

2021 - 2025

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Foreword pp. 3-4: Stephen Millard
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Summer 2025 – Summary pp. 5-6: Ahmet Kaya, Edmund Cornforth, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Patricia Sanchez Juanino, Stephen Millard, Shama Bernard, Barry Naisbitt, Lea de Greef and Monica George Michail
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Summer 2025 pp. 7-64: Ahmet Kaya, Edmund Cornforth, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Patricia Sanchez Juanino, Stephen Millard, Shama Bernard, Barry Naisbitt, Lea de Greef and Monica George Michail
Box A: What Drove the Polish Economic Success? pp. 25-32: Marcin Klucznik
Box B: Why Bond Markets Are Now In Charge pp. 44-49: Helen Thomas
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 54-63: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 64-73: Iana Liadze

Foreword pp. 3-4: Stephen Millard
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Spring 2025 – Summary pp. 5-6: Niesr
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Spring 2025 pp. 6-71: Alexandra Brown, Edmund Cornforth, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Stephen Millard, Shama Bernard, Barry Naisbitt, Lea De Greef and Monica George Michail
Box A: Trump, Tariffs and the Triffin Dilemma pp. 14-17: Turalay Kenc
Box B: The United States is Headed for Financial Stress pp. 28-31: Paul Mortimer-Lee
Box C: Will the Fiscal Push Bring BackGrowth in Germany pp. 36-41: Ahmet Kaya and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 58-66: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 67-75: Iana Liadze

Foreword pp. 3-4: Stephen Millard
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Winter 2025 – Summary pp. 5-6: Ahmet Kaya, Edmund Cornforth, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Stephen Millard, Shama Bernard, Barry Naisbitt, Lea De Greef and Monica George Michail
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Winter 2025 pp. 6-71: Ahmet Kaya, Edmund Cornforth, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Stephen Millard, Shama Bernard, Barry Naisbitt, Lea De Greef and Monica George Michail
Box A: France's Austerity Package: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts pp. 24-31: Ahmet Kaya and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Box B: Global Trade Fragmentation and the Rise of Connector Countries pp. 34-38: Lea De Greef and Antonio Haro-Banon
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 52-60: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 61-69: Iana Liadze

National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Autumn 2024 – Summary pp. 4-5: Ahmet Kaya, Edmund Cornforth, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Stephen Millard, Shama Bernard, Barry Naisbitt and Lea De Greef
Foreword pp. 4: Stephen Millard
National Institute Global Economic Outlook Autumn 2024 pp. 6-78: Ahmet Kaya, Edmund Cornforth, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Stephen Millard, Shama Bernard, Barry Naisbitt and Lea De Greef
Box A: Does the Recent Rise in Shipping Costs Warn of Higher Inflation? pp. 14-20: Ahmet Kaya, Edmund Cornforth and Barry Naisbitt
Box B: Not Your Father's Rate Cycle: US Economic Resilience Against Rate Hikes pp. 28-42: Monica George Michail and Paul Mortimer-Lee
Box C: Global Ripples: Fed's Monetary Moves and their Impact on Emerging Economies pp. 53-63: Turalay Kenc
NiGEM Topical Feature: The Effects of Higher US tariffs pp. 64-77: Shama Bernard, Lea De Greef, Ian Hurst, Ahmet Kaya, Barry Naisbitt and Iana Liadze
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 79-87: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 88-96: Iana Liadze

Foreword pp. 3-4: Stephen Millard
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Summer 2024 – Summary pp. 7-47: Ahmet Kaya, Edmund Cornforth, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Stephen Millard, Shama Bernard, Barry Naisbitt and Lea De Greef
Box A: The European Union's Revised Fiscal Rules: Main Features and Implications pp. 23-28: Lucia Cassaro
Box B: Quantitative Easing, Fiscal Policy and Central Bank Recapitalisation pp. 41-43: Jagjit Chadha
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 48-55: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 56-64: Iana Liadze

Foreword pp. 3-4: Stephen Millard
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Summary pp. 5-6: Niesr
Global Economic Outlook pp. 7-64: Barry Naisbitt, Edmund Cornforth, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ahmet Kaya, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Stephen Millard and Shama Bernard
Box A: Everything You Wanted to Know About the US Budget Deficit and Debt But Were Afraid to Ask pp. 23-33: Paul Mortimer-Lee and Ahmet Kaya
Box B: How Geopolitics Shapes Chinese Economic Policy: An Introduction to 'Asymmetric Decoupling' pp. 36-39: David Lubin
NiGEM Topical Feature: To What Extent Has the Recovery and Resilience Facility Supported the EU Recovery from Covid? pp. 54-64: Stephen Millard
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 65-71: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 72-80: Iana Liadze

Foreword pp. 3: Stephen Millard
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Summary pp. 4-6: Niesr
Global Economic Outlook pp. 7-53: Barry Naisbitt, Edmund Cornforth, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ahmet Kaya, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Stephen Millard and Shama Bernard
Box A: The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R**, as a Monetary Policy Constraint pp. 33-37: Gianluca Benigno
Box B: Geopolitical risks and the global economy pp. 39-43: Ahmet Kaya
Box C: The Spectre of a US House Price Correction pp. 45-51: Paul Mortimer-Lee
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 54-60: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 61-69: Iana Liadze