National Institute Economic Outlook

2025 - 2025

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Executive Summary - Stability First pp. 2-6: National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Global Conditions pp. 7-14: National Institute of Economic and Social Research
UK GDP and Inflation Outlook pp. 15-22: National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Box A: Trend Growth and Growth Accounting pp. 17-19: National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Outlook for Fiscal Policy pp. 23-39: National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Box B: Why is Our Forecast Different from the OBR's March Forecast? pp. 27-28: National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Box C: How Big Should the Fiscal Buffer Be? pp. 29-33: National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Box D: Assessing the Chancellor's Tax‐Raising Options pp. 34-39: National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Household Sector pp. 40-53: National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Box E: Measuring the UK NAIRU pp. 46-47: National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Corporate Sector pp. 48-53: National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Forecast Summary pp. 54-57: National Institute of Economic and Social Research