Global Conditions

National Institute of Economic and Social Research ()

National Institute Economic Outlook, 2026, issue Winter, 7-16

Abstract: Background, Forecast and Financial conditions and Risk:Early last year President Trump's proposals to set high tariff rates on imports from many countries into the United States marked a major change in economic policy. There was, in addition, uncertainty about what those tariff rates would ultimately be as countries began or intensified trade negotiations with the United States. The frequent amendments to initially proposed tariff rates and threats of retaliation, together with rounds of trade negotiations, resulted in measures of trade uncertainty (and policy uncertainty) rising steeply in the first half of last year before easing back as tariff actions were clarified (figure 1). By the end of the year the average effective tariff rate in the United States is estimated to have risen from around 2 per cent to around 17 per cent (source: Yale Budget Lab). Read more in publication.

Date: 2026
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