Industry and Regional Effects of a No-Deal Brexit

Arno Hantzsche

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Topical Briefings, 2019, issue 3

Abstract: Brexit uncertainty explains a large part of the current lack of momentum in the UK economy through its impact on investment, alongside global economic weaknesses. NIESR estimates the UK economy will eventually be around 5 per cent smaller than it would otherwise have been if there is a no-deal Brexit. All parts of the UK are set to be poorer with a no-deal Brexit than they would have been if we had stayed in the EU. The worst affected parts of the country include North Eastern Scotland, Kent, Surrey, East and West Sussex and East Anglia. In the short run, the response of the economy to no deal depends on the level of preparedness of businesses and mitigating policy measures adopted by the government and Bank of England.

Date: 2019-09
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