Uncertainty in Social Security Trust Fund Projections

Noah Meyerson and John Sabelhaus

National Tax Journal, 2000, vol. 53, issue 3, 515-30

Abstract: This paper presents measures of uncertainty about Social Security Trust Fund projections based on the new Long-Term Actuarial Model (LTAM) being developed at the Congressional Budget Office. Measuring the variance in Social Security outcomes involves three steps: specifying a model, characterizing uncertainty about model inputs, and generating useful measures of the uncertainty about model outputs. There are significant trade-offs to be made at each step, which can affect measured uncertainty in important ways. The LTAM framework is a promising approach for reconciling differences in other studies of uncertainty about long-term Social Security finances.

Date: 2000
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ntj:journl:v:53:y:2000:i:3:p:515-30

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