Can America Afford to Get Sick?

Jonathan Schwabish, Julie Topoleski and Ignez Tristao

National Tax Journal, 2007, vol. 60, issue 3, 407-18

Abstract: Long–term federal outlays for Medicare and Medicaid are projected to increase in the future because of the interaction between demographics and program eligibility. However, the magnitude of the projected increase depends almost entirely on the assumption about "excess cost growth." This growth factor is an unexplained residual—the gap between growth in per–beneficiary program outlays and growth in GDP per capita not explained by demographics alone. In the last several decades, excess cost has been positive and significant on average, though the annual pattern is volatile. This paper considers the implications of alternative assumptions about excess cost growth for federal budget and tax policy.

Date: 2007
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ntj:journl:v:60:y:2007:i:3:p:407-18

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