Structural Breaks in Potential GDP for Romanian Economy
Dorin Jula and
Additional contact information
Dorin Jula: Ph.D, Financial Management Faculty, Ecological University of Bucharest and Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy
Nicoleta Jula: Ph.D, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest
Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), 2018, vol. 6, issue 1, 23-41
In the paper we have calculated the potential gross domestic product for Romanian economy, by using both the trend functions (deterministic and stochastic) and the filters (Hodrick-Prescott filter and band-pass filters). We found that the logquadratic deterministic trend with structural breaks method offer the best outcomes. Bai-Perron tests has selected 1999q1 and 2009q1 as moments of structural breaks. According this technique, the Romanian potential GDP was over 6% during the 2004-2008 period and returns to around 6% in the years 2016-2017. With a few exceptions (recorded before 2010), output gap was above -0.5 and below +0.5% of GDP. This mean that the evolution of economic growth in Romania (especially after 2010) do not has induced inflationary pressures, through supply-side.
Keywords: potential gross domestic product; output gap; trend functions; structural breaks filters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://cmss.univnt.ro/wp-content/uploads/vol/split ... _issue_1_art.003.pdf First version, 2018 (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ntu:ntcmss:vol6-iss1-23-41
Access Statistics for this article
Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS) is currently edited by Bogdan Oancea
More articles in Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS) from "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Stefan Ciucu ().